This paper assesses several early warning (EWS) models of financial crises to propose a model that can predict the incidence of a currency crisis in developing countries. For this purpose, we employ the equal weighting (EW) and dynamic model averaging (DMA) approaches to combine forecast from...

Theories of systemic risk suggest that financial intermediaries’ balance-sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We provide supportive evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals and a component...

Theories of systemic risk suggest that financial intermediaries' balance-sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We provide supporting evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals and a component...

In this paper we investigate 3 important properties of global currencies: misalignments measured by the deviations from equilibrium (real effective) exchange rates, crash sensitivity captured by the copula tail dependence to the global market, and moment risk premia using a model-free method --...

We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In...

The main contribution of this paper is the construction of a cyclical systemic risk indicator from early warning indicators of banking crises (EWIs) used in Finland. Previous research has shown that combining EWIs can enhance their early warning properties. This study evaluates the indicator's...

We present a factor augmented forecasting model for assessing the financial vulnerability in Korea. Dynamic factor models often extract latent common factors from a large panel of time series data via the method of the principal components (PC). Instead, we employ the partial least squares (PLS)...

Periods of excessive credit growth can imply emergence of systemic financial stress which may result in financial crisis causing severe losses in the real economy. The base indicators of overheatedness in the credit markets are the expansion of the credit-to-GDP ratio and its deviation from its...

Recent financial crisis showed how the unfolding of liquidity risks of financial intermediaries spilled over to asset markets, contributing to asset price deterioration and the triggering of liquidity spirals. This paper derives and tests a financial fragility condition for predicting asset...

Theories of systemic risk suggest that financial intermediaries' balance-sheet constraints amplify fundamental shocks. We provide supportive evidence for such theories by decomposing the U.S. dollar risk premium into components associated with macroeconomic fundamentals and a component...