Despite widespread media interest in bull and bear markets, academic research that seeks to formally define bull markets is almost non-existent. This paper defines bull and bear markets in relation to a simple model of mean return regimes, and implements the definition using two formal turning...

This paper investigates the determinants of credit risk in insurance companies in the U.S. and Europe. Consistent with recent results for non-financial firms in the U.S., we find that equity volatility is a major determinant and predictor of CDS spreads for both U.S. and European insurers, even...

Affected by complicated issues, such as regional conflicts, trade wars, and the COVID-19 pandemic, manufacturing firms face enormous challenges in reconstructing the global supply chain landscape to form new cooperative innovation mechanisms. This study investigates the relationship between...

Chinese companies report year-end earnings and dividends simultaneously, so when the two sets of news are in conflict, the relative importance of earnings versus dividends can be disentangled. Chinese dividend announcements take precedence over earnings news, as revealed by Cumulative Absolute...

This paper provides a method for testing for regime differences when regimes are long-lasting. Standard testing procedures are generally inappropriate because regime persistence causes a spurious regression problem - a problem that has led to incorrect inference in a broad range of studies...

Whether Republican or Democratic presidents are better for the the stock market has been closely scrutinized for years. Although much of it is discussed only in casual terms, a recent academic study by Santa Clara and Valkanov (2003) documenting that the market does significantly better under...