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We analyze the variance risk of commodity markets. We construct synthetic variance swaps and find significantly negative realized and expected variance swap payoffs in most markets. We find evidence of commonalities among the realized payoffs of commodity variance swaps. We also document...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012905452
We propose and test a theory of using commodities as collateral for financing. Under capital control and collateral … theory of storage and provide new insights into the financialization of commodity markets …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013006991
This paper evaluates how different types of speculation affect the volatility of commodities' futures prices. We adopt … four indexes of speculation: Working's T, the market share of non-commercial traders, the percentage of net long … speculators over total open interest in future markets, which proxy for long term speculation, and scalping, which proxies for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756298
We examine the disruptions to global commodity flows following the bankruptcy of a commodity trading firm. The physical commodity network is operated by a handful of large traders that are responsible for the timely delivery of raw materials and inputs to industrial production. We propose a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014256266
On the 30th anniversary of the seminal article by Pindyck (1993), we re-evaluate the evidence for the classical rational model of commodity prices, extending it to admit time- varying discount rates, investors’ heterogeneity or both. Discount factors specifications are flexible enough to allow...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014351164
Most institutional investors gain access to commodities through diversified index funds, even though mean-reverting prices and low correlation among commodities returns indicate that two-fund separation does not hold for commodities. In contrast to demand for stocks and bonds, we find that, on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012898893
We report new evidence that speculation in energy and precious metal futures are more prevalent in crisis periods and … is strongly and often non-linearly associated with speculation across instruments …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013240256
development and, finally, speculation. Much debate has aroused about the role of such or such factor. The Momagri 2 Model has been …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013150244
This paper examines the performance of a naïve equally weighted buy-and-hold portfolio and optimization-based commodity futures portfolios for various lookback and holding periods using data from January 1986 to December 2018. The application of Monte Carlo simulation-based mean-variance and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012291900
We develop a model to study the impacts of speculative position limits in commodity futures market. In the spirit of Dodd-Frank Act, regulators believe that position limit on speculators would dampen futures price volatility and prevent market manipulation. We show that this is not true due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014235601