An empirical comparison of forecasting performance is undertaken for multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models in the estimation of intraday value at risk (VaR). This comparison aims to evaluate the applicability of such models to risk management using...

The popular 'airline' model for a seasonal time series assumes that a variable needsdouble differencing, i.e. first and seasonal (or annual) differencing.The resultant time series can usually be described by a low order movingaverage model with estimated roots close to the unit circle. This...

The popular 'airline' model for a seasonal time series assumes that a variable needs double differencing, i.e. first and seasonal (or annual) differencing. The resultant time series can usually be described by a low order moving average model with estimated roots close to the unit circle. This...

We discuss the benchmarking and temporal distribution methods for economic time series. We compare the Pro-Rata, the Denton and the Chow-Lin methods, and apply them to an analysis of some components of Japanese GDP. We have found that the Denton method often gives reasonable results among three...

The popular 'airline' model for a seasonal time series assumes that a variable needsdouble differencing, i.e. first and seasonal (or annual) differencing.The resultant time series can usually be described by a low order movingaverage model with estimated roots close to the unit circle. This...

The popular "airline" model for a seasonal time series assumes that a variable needsdouble differencing, i.e. first and seasonal (or annual) differencing.The resultant time series can usually be described by a low order movingaverage model with estimated roots close to the unit circle. This...

We shed light on a class of models that increase the flexibility of the seasonal pattern within a framework of the structural time series model. The basic idea is to drive the seasonal summation model by a moving average process rather than by a white noise or an AR process. Generally, such an...

It is well known that the volatility spillover increases when a large economic shock occurs, and then the volatility spillover pattern in the market changes. Accordingly, many papers note that clarifying the time-varying pattern of volatility transmission in domestic and international markets is...

This study clarifies how risks spread across economic sectors and indicates the sectors that are the most affected to help investors with asset allocation and to support them in risk management. Although the Japanese stock market is one of the relatively large global stock markets, no studies...