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This note outlines and discusses some of the strands in the post-Keynesian literature on business cycles. Most post-Keynesians have focused on endogenously generated cycles, but the mechanism varies: some focus on the goods market, others on financial markets, the labor market, or political...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009357235
This article quantifies the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and Europe (euro area). We do so by first constructing daily business cycle indexes computed on the basis of the news topics the media writes about. At a broad level, the most influential...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012926524
Research about narratives’ role in economics is scarce, while real word experience and research in other sciences suggest they matter a lot. This article proposes a view and methodology for quantifying the epidemiology of media narratives relevant to business cycles in the US, Japan, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892114
Using a wide variety of business cycle dating and filtering techniques, this paper documents the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. First, all incomes are cyclical and co-move with the business cycle. Second, lower and higher income individuals experience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215733
This paper takes an otherwise standard real-business-cycle setup with government sector, and augments it with shocks to consumer confidence to study business cycle fluctuations. A surprise increase in consumer confidence generates higher utility, as the household values consumption more in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012147221
Speculation, in the spirit of Harrison and Kreps [1978], is introduced into a standard real business cycle model. Investors (speculators) hold heterogeneous beliefs about firm growth. Firm ownership, and thus, the firm's discount factor varies with waves of optimism and leverage. These waves...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012845653
We document the cyclical behavior of the post-tax income distribution in the US. The analysis is based on a dataset that is informative for the lower and the upper tail of the post-tax income distribution and that also matches aggregate national income. Most importantly, lower and higher income...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013294767
We document two striking facts about U.S. firm dynamics and interpret their significance for aggregate employment dynamics. The first observation is the steady decline in the firm entry rate over the last thirty years, and the second is the gradual shift of employment from younger to older firms...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013030558
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009522855
We review recent work comparing properties of international business cycles with those of dynamic general equilibrium models, emphasizing two discrepancies between theory and data that we refer to as anomalies. The first is the consumption/output/productivity anomaly: in the data we generally...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013233744