The term "information risk" or "information uncertainty" is defined as the risk of a misleading signal. This risk is understood Bayesianly in terms of the likelihood function f(S|φ). In Bayesian method, f(S|φ) captures the quality of signal S with respect to parameter φ. The Bayesian position...

The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case however in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based on...

There is a strand of CAPM based analytical research in accounting that uncovers a little known CAPM corollary, namely that the firm's cost of capital is a joint effect of its payoff risk and payoff mean. The CAPM equilibrium mechanism has the effect that the "numerator" (expected payoff) drives...

The properties of information, including "information uncertainty", can be understood only Bayesianly. Common formulations that define information uncertainty in terms of just statistical "precision" (i.e. sampling variance), or any one estimator characteristic (e.g. bias), are inadequate for...

The probability of informed trading (PIN) is used widely as a measure of information asymmetry. Relatively little work has appeared on how well PIN models fit empirical trade data. We reveal structural limitations in PIN models by examining their marginal distributions and dependence structures...

It is widely held that better financial reporting makes investors more confident in their predictions of future cash flows and reduces their required risk premia. The logic is that more information leads necessarily to more certainty, and hence lower subjective estimates of firm "beta" or...

The probability of informed trading (PIN) is a commonly used market microstructure measure for detecting the level of information asymmetry. Estimating PIN can be problematic due to corner solutions, local maxima and floating point exceptions (FPE). Yan and Zhang (2012) show that whilst...

Before information φ arrives, market observers must be uncertain whether the stock price conditioned on φ will be higher or lower than the current price. Otherwise there is an obvious arbitrage opportunity. By assuming this minimal condition of efficient markets, it is shown under the...

Investors are said to "abhor uncertainty", but if there were no uncertainty they could earn only the risk-free rate. A fundamental result in the analytical accounting literature shows that investors buying into a CARA-normal CAPM market pay lower asset prices, earn higher expected returns, and...

The model of rational decision-making in most of economics and statistics is expected utility theory (EU) axiomatised by von Neumann and Morgenstern, Savage and others. This is less the case, however, in financial economics and mathematical finance, where investment decisions are commonly based...