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We adapt the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001) to realized volatilities (denoted RV-MRW) and take stock of recent theoretical insights on this model in Duchon et al. (2012) to derive forecasts of financial volatility. Moreover, we propose a new extension of the binomial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012672178
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001617689
speculative bubbles and/or noise trading behavior. Our empirical findings for the US stock market covering the 1871:1 - 2000 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010503717
-Fuller test reveals existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in S&P 500 data during the late 1990s …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013119302
We extend the constant discount factor model with intrinsic bubbles developed in Froot and Obstfeld (1991) to account … for serial correlation in dividend growth rates. We derive an exact analytical expression for both the present value stock … price and an intrinsic bubble component when dividend growth rates evolve as a Gaussian first-order autoregressive process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012894388
-Fuller test reveals existence of periodically collapsing bubbles in S&P 500 data during the late 1990s. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011555939
dividend stream is modeled as a random walk with innovations drawn from the family of stable distributions. We derive an exact …-driven intrinsic bubbles to explain the observed variation in annual U.S. stock prices. We compare results obtained in this setting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012889782
In order to examine non-linear predictability of the US and Japanese dividend-yield ratio, smooth transition regression … of non-linear risk aversion. Our findings support non-linearity in the US and Japanese dividend yield that might be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012993353
We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do not...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010365211
We propose several multivariate variance ratio statistics. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the statistics and scalar functions thereof under the null hypothesis that returns are unpredictable after a constant mean adjustment (i.e., under the weak form Efficient Market Hypothesis). We do...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010496122