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Global Long-run Risk and International Business Cycles : A Factor-Stochastic Volatility Approach
Figueiredo, Calebe - 2018
We extract a global factor from cross-country output growth since 1960. We find that the fluctuations of the global factor are typically small, with the annualized unconditional volatility estimated at 0.06%, but highly persistent, with estimated persistence at 0.98. Evidence of time variation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012908986
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International macroeconomic vulnerability
Velloso, João; Garcia, Márcio Gomes Pinto; Guillen, Diogo - 2022
We propose and implement an index of macroeconomic vulnerability to foreign shocks based on a structural time-varying bayesianVARwith a block-exogeneity hypothesis for a given pair of a large economy and a small open economy. The index is based on the sum of the responses of the small open...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814956
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Real‐time weakness of the global economy
Leiva‐Leon, Danilo; Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel; Rots, Eyno - 2020
provides a consistent narrative of the main regional contributors of world economy's weakness. Third, it allows to perform …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012249766
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Business cycle volatility and globalization : a survey
Buch, Claudia M. - 2002
The globalization of capital and product markets has many implications for economic welfare. Countries can specialize in the production of goods for which they have comparative advantages, and capital is allocated more efficiently. However, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10001680906
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Business cycle volatility and globalization : a survey
Buch, Claudia M. - 2002
The globalization of capital and product markets has many implications for economic welfare. Countries can specialize in the production of goods for which they have comparative advantages, and capital is allocated more efficiently. However, one potentially adverse effect of globalization is the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011474806
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China's emergence in the world economy and business cycles in Latin America
Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Rebucci, … - 2012
world have altered the transmission mechanism of international business cycles to Latin America. Evidence based on a Global … world shows that the long-term impact of a China GDP shock on the typical Latin American economy has increased by three … associated with a deceleration in China's economic growth in the future for both Latin America and the rest of the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009627525
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Regionalization vs. globalization
Hirata, Hideaki; Kose, M. Ayhan; Otrok, Christopher M. - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009703626
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013086323
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Regionalization vs. Globalization
Hirata, Hideaki - 2013
Both global and regional economic linkages have strengthened substantially over the past quarter century. We employ a dynamic factor model to analyze the implications of these linkages for the evolution of global and regional business cycles. Our model allows us to assess the roles played by the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013088886
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Industrial Connectedness and Business Cycle Comovements
Guisinger, Amy; Owyang, Michael; Soques, Daniel - 2021
The effect of economic shocks on business cycles fluctuations may vary across industries. For example, shocks that originate in a single industry may propagate elsewhere, either up or down stream in the production chain. Thus, industries that are more connected may be more vulnerable to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013252202