This study examines the sources of uncertainty in predicting government tax revenues in Israel. In the first stage, we estimate a model based on several real and financial macroeconomic variables and identify a significant, stable and highly accurate relation between these variables and tax...

Revenue elasticities play a key role in forecasting, monitoring and analysing public finances under the European fiscal framework, which largely builds on cyclically adjusted indicators. This paper investigates whether there is evidence for dynamic - instead of the currently used static -...

A substantial amount of aid to developing countries is given to the government, or goes through the budget, meaning it should have an impact on government fiscal behaviour (particularly on government spending). The few existing empirical studies on the effects of aid on government spending...

A substantial amount of aid to developing countries is given to the government, or goes through the budget, meaning it should have an impact on government fiscal behaviour (particularly on government spending). The few existing cross-country empirical studies on the effects of aid on government...

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions and false predictions of the elasticities linking the tax base to its corresponding tax type. Across six tax types and the overall tax sum for Germany, we find a heterogeneous...

The paper deals with a summary of findings in the area of tax forecasts. It describes the basic methodology for predicting tax revenues, both in terms of the macroeconomic approach and from a microeconomic perspective. The microeconomic approach used microsimulation methods with methods based on...

This paper provides preliminary evidence on behavioral responses to taxation around the 2013 tax increase that raised top marginal tax rates on capital income by about 9.5 points and on labor income by about 6.5 points. Using published tabulated tax statistics from the Statistics of Income...

The existing empirical literature on the US federal revenue-expenditure nexus has had mixed findings. Amongst those papers presenting evidence in favor of causation running from taxes to expenditures, support for the conventional, Friedman-type tax-spend hypothesis is nearly ubiquitous. Evidence...

In this paper we revisit the relationship between democracy, redistribution and inequality. We first explain the theoretical reasons why democracy is expected to increase redistribution and reduce inequality, and why this expectation may fail to be realized when democracy is captured by the...