basis of available information at the time the budget is prepared; we find that the forecast error based is six times … greater than the error based on ex-post projection. These results imply that the forecast error predominantly reflects … are even more limited — based only on lagged tax revenues and a GDP growth forecast — provide less-accurate projections …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors. …

This paper analyzes the role of uncertainty on both exchange rate expectations and forecast errors of professionals for … Bayesian VAR approach, we observe that effects on forecast errors of professionals turn out to be more significant compared to …

standard deviation of individual forecasts around the median Consensus Forecast as proxy for forecast uncertainty. Our sample … react significantly to inflation forecast uncertainty by reducing their policy rates in times of higher inflation … forecast uncertainty. We conclude with some implications for optimal monetary policy rules and central bank watchers. …

We have argued that from the standpoint of a policy maker, the uncertainty of using the average forecast is not the … that the uncertainty of the average forecast can be expressed as the disagreement among the forecasters plus the volatility … the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …

the period 1972:1-2014:12 to forecasts our tail risk indicators with each model in pseudo-real time. Our key finding is …

By decomposing analysts' forecast errors into common and idiosyncratic components, we develop a simple model aimed at … explaining the relationship between forecast uncertainty and analyst dispersion. Under this framework, we propose a new measure … of earnings forecast uncertainty as the sum of dispersion among analysts and the variance of mean forecast errors …

A crucial but often ignored element of inflation expectations is the amount of perceived inflation risk. This paper …