"target" variable to be predicted, using only "first release" data in model estimation and prediction construction yields mean …

Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a … small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …

estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy …

inflation rates of Turkey and propose a new weighting scheme, the time-varying simple weighting method. Our guiding principle … prospective credibility of the inflation-targeting regime of the central bank of the Republic of Turkey …

estimation of the different models, respectively. We find that overall the large Bayesian VAR provides the most precise forecasts …

macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate … predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error … also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation. - Forecasting ; Inflation …