In this paper we show that survey-based-expectations about the future evolution of the Chilean exchange rate have the ability to predict the returns of the six primary non-ferrous metals: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. Predictability is also found for returns of the London Metal...

In this paper we show that the Chilean exchange rate has the ability to predict the returns of the London Metal Exchange Index and of the six primary non-ferrous metals that are part of the index: aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin and zinc. The economic relationship hinges on the present-value...

In this paper we present a new asymptotically normal test for out-of-sample evaluation in nested models. Our approach is a simple modification of a traditional encompassing test that is commonly known as Clark and West test (CW). The key point of our strategy is to introduce an independent...

This is a summary of the paper entitled: “The Mean Squared Prediction Error Paradox”. In that paper, we show that traditional comparisons of Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE) between two competing forecasts may be highly controversial. This is so because when some specific conditions of...

In this paper we show that the exchange rates of some commodity exporter countries have the ability to predict the price of spot and future contracts of aluminum. This is shown with both insample and out-of-sample analyses. The theoretical underpinning of these results relies on the...

En este informe se estudia la evolución del sistema de pensiones de Chile en el período 2000-2017 analizando su institucionalidad, su gasto público y su sostenibilidad financiera. Forma parte de un proyecto de la Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL) que busca estudiar...

The main aim of this paper is to forecast both in-sample and out-of-sample lithium prices. Specifically, we explore the empirical implications of the present value model for exchange rates, market indexes, mining company prices and related company prices in hi-tech, automotive, electric vehicle...

We test whether the availability of the emergency contraceptive (“morning after”) pill in the absence of legalised abortion can have effects similar to those of other large-scale contraceptive reforms. To do so we examine a quasi-experimental policy reform occurring in Chile in 2008. Using...