This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning...

The Lerner paradox is the possibility that a tariff on an import good might worsen a country's terms of trade, and the Metzler paradox is the possibility that a tariff on an import good might reduce a country’s import price. In a general equilibrium framework with multiple goods, this paper...

In this paper I sketch out the rough contours of the challenge faced by the WTO in dealing with non-tariff measures (NTMs) as seen from the economic theories of trade agreements. The key questions for the WTO - the answers to which largely dictate the choice between shallow and deep approaches...