-Infected-Recovered) transmission models from epidemic theory. This class of models addresses two important features of contagion modelling, which are a … outcome and temporal data. The latter require the introduction of a novel hierarchical model that we call the Hidden Epidemic … Model (HEM), and which embeds the stochastic financial epidemic as a latent process. The empirical results suggest, among …

financial indices. We also find that COVID-19 world cases and deaths are relevant to understand banking cycles co …

dozen years before. As economies around the world locked down in the face of the potentially deadly but completely novel …

We construct a news-based viral disease index and study the dynamic impact of epidemics on the world economy, using … structural vector autoregressions. Epidemic shocks have persistently negative effects, both directly and indirectly, on affected … countries and on world output. The shocks lead to a significant fall in global trade, employment, and consumer prices for three …