Sovereign CDS spreads have unique predictive power for future stock market index returns, sovereign bond yields, as well as real macroeconomic variables such as GDP and PMI. The predictive power comes almost entirely from the global, rather than country-specific, component of sovereign CDS...

Consistent with information-based theories, ``regular'' ETFs (i.e., those without embedded leverage) are more liquid than their underlyings. Consistent with speculation-based theories, levered ETFs have substantially higher intermediation costs than regular ETFs. The cost difference between...

The sovereign CDS market has been growing rapidly in recent years, with a gross notional amount of around 2 trillion dollars in 2015. We document a strong momentum effect in this market. Its unique feature is that this momentum strategy returns are positively skewed and higher during recessions....

We conduct a survey, on the eve of the 2020 presidential election, of over 3,000 highly experienced and affluent investors about the COVID-19 cases among their social contacts, their political leanings, and expectations. Due to the saturating media coverage on the pandemic at the time of our...

This study examines the effect of economic and political uncertainty on sovereign CDS spreads using a novel panel index of world uncertainty. We document that sovereign CDS spreads widen with uncertainty. A 1% increase in uncertainty leads to a 0.86% increase in sovereign CDS spreads....

This paper examines the long-term impact of natural disasters on household portfoliochoices. In particular, we study this issue with the Wen Chuan Earthquake thatoccurred in China in 2008 as an exogenous natural disaster event. Previous literaturesfind that natural disasters can cause affected...

We show that Treasury security prices in the secondary market decrease significantly before auctions and recover shortly after. Hence, Treasury security prices tend to be lower on auction days, implying a large issuance cost for the Treasury Department, which is estimated to be 9-18 basis points...

We show that Treasury security prices in the secondary market decrease significantly before subsequent auctions and recover shortly after. This price pattern implies a large issuance cost for the Treasury Department, which is estimated to be between 9 and 18 basis points of the auction size. For...

This paper analyzes a model of fund managers' reputation concerns. It explains why "Nickel strategies" (strategies that earn small positive returns most of the time but occasionally lead to dramatic losses) are more popular among managers than the opposite "Black Swan strategies," (strategies...

This article analyzes the implications of money illusion for investor behavior and asset prices in a securities market economy with inflationary fluctuations. We provide a belief-based formulation of money illusion which accounts for the systematic mistakes in evaluating real and nominal...