-run restrictions on a VAR model to disentangle the effects of both shocks. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - reduce …

line with theory, induce a negative nowcast error but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for up to 30 …

and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks – in line with theory - generate a …

and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a …

the direct impact of a shock and the magnitudes of the downstream and the upstream indirect effects. We then investigate … through the input-output network, with a pattern broadly consistent with theory. Quantitatively, the network-based propagation …, capturing the fact that the local propagation of a shock to an industry will fall more heavily on other industries that tend to …

the inflation rate respond to four different hypothetical exogenous shocks: a monetary policy shock, a government spending … shock, an income tax shock, and an oil price shock. While expert predictions are quantitatively close to benchmarks from … predictions of changes in inflation are at odds with those of experts both for the tax shock and the interest rate shock. We show …