We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870–2016. Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify...

Ende Oktober 2018 hat der Sachverständigenrat für Verbraucherfragen das Gutachten "Verbrauchergerechtes Scoring" vorgelegt. Es geht dabei um die sich ausbreitende Praxis, immer mehr Aspekte des Verhaltens der Bürger durch "Scores" vorherzusagen oder zu steuern. Scoring ist durch eine Reihe...

Defensive decision making occurs when a manager ranks an option as the best for the organization yet deliberately chooses a second-best option that protects him or herself against negative consequences. We study 950 managers in a public administration to analyze the frequency and causes of...

We develop early warning models for financial crisis prediction by applying machine learning techniques to macrofinancial data for 17 countries over 1870-2016. Most nonlin-ear machine learning models outperform logistic regression in out-of-sample predictions and forecasting. We identify...