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Releases of key macroeconomic indicators are closely watched by financial markets. We investigate the role of expectation dispersion and economic uncertainty for the stock-market reaction to indicator releases. We find that the strength of the financial market response to news decreases with the...
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Market Hypothesis sense. The paper tries to show that this so-called excess volatility is to a large extend the result of the … employing the Gordon Growth Model and using an estimation process for the dividend growth rate that was suggested by Barsky and …, constant dividend growth rates as well as non-variable discount rates. It is shown that indeed volatility declines considerably …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003482498
EGARCH model. Empirical results indicate significant return and volatility spillover effects during the full sample and the …-movements, and strong volatility persistence. During the Russian Great Recession subsample, the ownreturn effects of the markets are … partially integrated and the volatility transmission linkages across them are not that strong in crises periods, thus confirming …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011454085
We propose a Conditional Autoregressive Wishart (CAW) model for the analysis of realized covariance matrices of asset returns. Our model assumes a generalized linear autoregressive moving average structure for the scale matrix of the Wishart distribution allowing to accommodate for complex...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013133422
volatility in forecasting future returns in an emerging market stock index …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013103071
between FIIs inflows and volatility in indices of NSE by adopting Granger Causality test in a bivariate VAR framework. The … National Stock Exchange, one of the fastest emerging stock markets with high volatility. The analysis covered daily data series …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013106255
Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012786275
Large long-run swings in the United States stock market over the past century correspond to swings in estimates of fundamental values calculated by using a long moving average of past dividend growth to forecast future growth rates. Such a procedure would have been reasonable if investors were...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012787482