The evaluation of economic forecasts is a substantial and important aspect of economic research, and a considerable part of such evaluation is performed by comparing competing forecasts. This thesis focuses on the development of statistical procedures in order that reliable comparison of...

In this paper we develop a simple procedure which delivers tests for the pres-ence of a broken trend in a univariate time series which do not require knowledgeof the form of serial correlation in the data and are robust as to whether theshocks are generated by an I(0) or an I(1) process. Two...

ABSTRACT Studies of how exchange rate volatility affects aggregate trade flows implicitly assume a uniform response across individual sectors. This is highly unlikely given that the responsiveness of trade to exchange rate fluctuations could depend on the biological, marketing, and economic...