Forecasting the vote share for the upcoming US presidential elections involves multiple pivotal economic and non-economic factors. Critical macroeconomic forces such as the rate of economic growth, tax burden, inflation, and unemployment significantly influence the votes gained or lost by the...

Non-Gaussian state-space models arise in several applications, and within this framework the binary time series setting provides a relevant example. However, unlike for Gaussian state-space models — where filtering, predictive and smoothing distributions are available in closed form — binary...

The outcome of the US presidential election is one of the most significant events that impacts trade, investment, and geopolitical policies on the global stage. It also sets the direction of the world economy and global politics for the next few years. Hence, it is of prime importance not just...

We compare heteroskedasticity-robust inference methods with a large-scale Monte Carlo study based on regressions from 155 reproduction packages of leading economic journals. The results confirm established wisdom and uncover new insights. Among well established methods HC2 standard errors with...

A common explanation for the inability of the monetary model to beat the random walk in forecasting future exchange rates is that conventional time series tests may have low power, and that panel data should generate more powerful tests. This paper provides an extensive evaluation of this power...

The origin of entropy dates back to 19th century. In 1948, the entropy concept as a measure of uncertainty was developed by Shannon. A decade after in 1957, Jaynes formulated Shannon’s entropy as a method for estimation and inference particularly for ill-posed problems by proposing the so...

Through an estimated and calibrated DSGE model with imperfect competition and nominal rigidities, this work aims to assess the dynamic effects of exogenous perturbations in a small open economy to provide a prescription of a simple monetary policy rule associated with the minimal welfare losses...

Theoretical constraints on economic-model parameters often are in the form of inequality restrictions. For example, many theoretical results are in the form of monotonicity or nonnegativity restrictions. Inequality constraints can truncate sampling distributions of parameter estimators, so that...

This paper analyzes the measurement of credit risk capital requirements under the new Basel Accord (Basel II): the Internal Rating Based approach (IRB). It focuses in the analytical formula for its calculation, since its derivation to the main assumptions behind it. We also estimate the credit...

Optimism bias is a consistent feature associated with truck toll forecasts, à la Standard & Poor’s and the NCHRP synthesis reports. Given the persistent problem, two major sources of this bias are explored. In particular, the ignorance of operating cost as a demand-side factor and lack of...