Pooling the forecast outcomes from different models has been shown by Makridakis (1989), Clement (1989) and others to improve out-of-sample forecast test statistics beyond any of the individual component techniques. As well as conventional combining, a different approach to forecast combination...

In recent years there has been an increased interest in the extent to which managers can improve their property portfolio position through international diversification. Much of this interest has centred on the use of various statistical/econometric tests of time-varying correlations and...

Purpose ? To develop an integrated approach to forecasting spot foreign exchange rates by incorporating some principles underlying long-term dependence.Design/methodology/approach ? The paper utilises the random-walk framework to develop a stochastic forecast model wherein the sign (positive or...

An important assumption underlying traditional theories of financial time-series behaviour is that consecutive changes in the price of an asset (ie. asset returns) are independent of each other. For analysts seeking to predict the future value of an asset, this implies that the best step-ahead...

This study presents further evidence on the predictability of excess Equity Reit returns. Recent evidence on forecasting excess returns using fundamental variables has resulted in poor out of sample performance. Trading strategies based upon these forecasts have not outperformed the buy hold...

ERES:conference

This study presents further evidence of the predictability of excess equity REIT (real estate investment trust) returns. Recent evidence on forecasting excess returns using fundamental variables has resulted in diminishing returns from the 1990’s onward. Trading strategies based on these...

ERES:conference

ERES:conference