The goal of this study is to use a large language model, such as GPT-3, to generate responses from hard-to-reach elite members to multiple-choice questions. The most relevant or data-consistent responses can then be used to infer potential responses from selected elite members and apply them in...

Since the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, Russian-Western relations have experienced rapid deterioration, as exhibited by mounting ideological resentments, new Cold War-style rhetoric flowing from both sides, increasing geopolitical confrontation, and greater potential risks associated with...

This research is designed to explore whether election fraud precinct-level estimates obtained from a finite mixture likelihood model, recently developed by Mebane(2015), can be validated against alternative, more intuitive measures of election fraud. I estimate the precinct-level probabilities...

This paper uses the tools of election forensics to investigate electoral fraud in the most recent Philippine national elections, 2016. We first focus on digit tests, finite mixture model and its equivalents. We pay particular attention to the measurement of stolen votes and geographic allocation...

This paper introduces a novel theoretic approach towards understanding election fraud under autocracies, by suggesting a signaling model of election fraud and testing its basic implications on unique datasets from Russian and cross-national settings. According to the theory, the heads of...

We argue that the pattern of fraudulent elections in Russia can be explained by combining ideas about federalism with a formal signaling game model. We argue that the changing pattern of electoral frauds from the mid-1990s to the 2000s can be explained by changes in rational strategies of...

This study sheds new light on whether public opinion polls, namely, preference falsification, can affect the level of election fraud by employing Kuran's model of preference falsification, which is empirically tested on the data collected from the most recent presidential campaign in Russia...

Although the Russian Presidential election of 2012 is characterized by blatant fraud, the estimates released by major national polling organizations before and after the election showed close correspondence to official results. This fact implies the presence of a potential source of hidden...

The mounting tensions between Russia and the West over the Ukrainian crisis and Crimea's annexation in 2014; Russia's growing information warfare and cyberwarfare campaign, culminating in interference with the recent US presidential election; confrontation over the Syrian conflict, and many other...