Urban land use and transportation policies have dramatic effects on the density and spatial distribution of residences in large cities. Effects of these policies have been analyzed using numerical urban simulation models. At the same time, the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Residential...

This paper assesses the predictive power of variables that measure market tightness, such as seller's bargaining power and sale probabilities, on future home prices. Theoretical insights from a stylized search-and-matching model illustrate that such indicators can be associated with subsequent...

This paper sheds light on two problems in the Penn World Table (PWT) GDP estimates. First, we show that these estimates vary substantially across different versions of the PWT despite being derived from very similar underlying data and using almost identical methodologies; that this variability...

This paper considers the widespread adoption of electric, shared, autonomous vehicles (AVs). Numerical simulations suggest falling transportation costs and changing center-city land use patterns will reshape the urban form of the city, with several primary consequences. The most likely scenarios...

We develop a model of a monocentric, oil-exporting city. The model predicts producer price and transportation cost effects of oil price changes on the house price gradient. Empirical findings support the predictions, with house price changes positively linked to the price of oil in cities...

Bartik's (1991, 1993) approach to identifying shocks in demand to regional economies has been used extensively for nearly thirty years. We chronicle the development of Bartik-type shift-share instruments and examine the empirical performance of alternative versions that use different...

There is a debate in the literature on the best method to forecast an aggregate: (1) forecast the aggregate directly, (2) forecast the disaggregates and then aggregate, or (3) forecast the aggregate using disaggregate information. This paper contributes to this debate by suggesting that in the...

We develop a model of a small region with durable housing, endogenous home maintenance, and disaster expectations, in which hurricane strike damage is a function of maintenance decisions. The model implies that declining areas (relative to growing areas) have a less well-maintained housing...