pricing ; risk premium ; density forecast ; Kalman filter ; variance swap ; Lévy process ; stochastic volatility ; jump …

We introduce a discrete-time model for log-return dynamics with observable volatility and jumps. Our proposal extends … the class of Realized Volatility heterogeneous auto-regressive gamma (HARG) processes adding a jump component with time … compensating for equity, volatility, and jump risks, the generating function under the risk-neutral measure inherits analytical …

This paper provides an empirical study on the predictability of implied volatility using dataset collected from the … implied volatility characteristics across various maturities. We applied both in and out-of-sample tests that include the … provides evidence of non-random movement in the implied volatility series and indicates predictability of implied volatility …

volatility of the options prices. The approach is flexible in that different objective functions for predicting the underlying … volatility can be modified and adapted in the proposed framework. The framework is implemented empirically for four major … (MEM) of implied volatility and the GARCH(1,1). The results indicate that the proposed framework is capable of producing …

adding power to stochastic volatility and jump diffusion models. Anchoring versions converge to corresponding Black …-Scholes, stochastic volatility, and jump diffusion models if adjustments to underlying currency risks to get to option risks are correct …

This paper examines the cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options. The data used … common factors can explain a vast proportion of the variation in volatility term structures across currencies. Furthermore …, the results indicate that the euro is the dominant currency, as the implied volatility term structure of the euro is found …

Option prices seem to behave in ways inconsistent with the Black-Scholes model. Implied volatility varies with the … strike price in a parabolic shape that is often called the volatility 'smile.' My objective in this paper is to identify … promising in explaining the volatility smile. Applying this to the ERM data, I find that the probability of a devaluation in the …