Macroeconomic costs of conflict are generally very large, with GDP per capita about 28 percent lower ten years after … conflict onset. This is overwhelmingly driven by private consumption, which falls by 25 percent ten years after conflict onset …. Conflict is also associated with dramatic declines in official trade, with exports (imports) estimated to be 58 (34) percent …

immigration increases the probability that the destination country initiates a conflict against the origin. We find that this …

-peaceful world. But how much would individual be willing to pay to avoid just the economic costs of conflict? Remarkably, even these … only the material, economic welfare costs of conflict stemming from the altered path of consumption resulting from conflict … pure economic welfare losses from conflict are quite large. I find that, on average, individuals who live in a country that …

When do opposition groups decide to mount a terrorism campaign and when do they enter an open civil conflict against … the ruling government? This paper models an opposition group's choice between peace, terrorism, and open conflict …. Terrorism emerges if executive constraints are intermediate and rents are sizeable. Open conflict is predicted to emerge under …

ethnic conflict. A new type of bargaining failure due to multiple types of potential conflicts (and hence multiple threat … points) is identified. The theory predicts war to be more likely when resource and group concentration are high, and the …

geographic location for inter-State conflict. The main predictions of the theory are that conflict tends to be more likely when …

open civil conflict against the government. Our model implies that terrorism emerges if constraints on the ruling executive … group are intermediate and rents are sizeable, hereas conflict looms under poor executive constraints. Analyzing annual data … when considering the incidence and onset of terrorism and conflict. The corresponding magnitudes are economically sizeable …