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In this paper, we present a new time series model, whichdescribes self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) nonlinearityand seasonality simultaneously. The model is termed multiplicativeseasonal SETAR (SEASETAR). It can be viewed as a special case of ageneral non-multiplicativeSETAR model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011304390
time series driven by expectation relationships. We consider inflation data on the G7 countries to illustrate these results. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011781868
Time series analysis of Nigerian monthly Inflation Rates (INFL) Data is done. It is observed that it is seasonal. Based … forecasts are obtained on the basis of it. These forecasts are shown to agree closely with the observations. -- inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009769978
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012021948
significantly in 2021. Inflation jumped to levels not seen for 40 years in the EU. Our study aims to use artificial intelligence to … forecast inflation. We also use artificial intelligence to forecast stock index changes. Based on the forecasts, we propose … portfolio reallocation decisions to protect against inflation. The forecasting literature does not address the importance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014497442
functional autoregressive (FAR) modeling approach to the density forecasting analysis of national inflation rates using sectoral … inflation rates in the UK over the period January 1997-September 2013. The pseudo out-of-sample forecasting evaluation and test … generating the density forecast of inflation, and analyse the performance of the central bank in achieving announced inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013039117
Motivated by economic-theory concepts - the Fisher hypothesis and the theory of the term structure - we consider a … small set of simple bivariate closed-loop time-series models for the prediction of price inflation and of long- and short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009735355
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003778880
In general, central banks are concerned with keeping the inflation rate stable while also sustaining output close to an … efficient level. Under "inflation targeting", forecasts of the evolution of the general price level are an essential input for … policy decisions and these are usually released in quarterly "Inflation Reports". The costs and benefits of transparency in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011880436
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011978906