We propose a reduced form model for default that allows us to derive closed-form solutions to all the key ingredients in credit risk modeling: risk-free bond prices, defaultable bond prices (with and without stochastic recovery) and probabilities of survival. We show that all these quantities...

We start by presenting a reduced-form multiple default type of model and derive abstract results on the influence of a state variable X on credit spreads, when both the intensity and the loss quota distribution are driven by X. The aim is to apply the results to a concrete real life situation,...

The writing of this article predates by several months the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the takeover of Credit Suisse which occurred in March 2023. It does not represent the views of the European Central Bank (ECB) and should not be construed as linked to or an advice for the winding down...

Return anomalies are most pronounced among distressed stocks. We attribute this finding to the role of misvaluation and investors' inability to value distressed stocks correctly. We treat distressed stocks as options and construct a valuation model that explicitly takes into account the value of...

We propose a reduced form model for default that allows us to derive closed-form solutions to all the key ingredients in credit risk modeling: risk-free bond prices, defaultable bond prices (with and without stochastic recovery) and probabilities of survival. We show that all these quantities...

We start by presenting a reduced-form multiple default type of model and derive abstract results on the influence of a state variable X on credit spreads, when both the intensity and the loss quota distribution are driven by X. The aim is to apply the results to a concrete real life situation,...

Using a novel data set and new proxies for rollover losses and market illiquidity, this paper finds that market illiquidity affects corporate bond spreads beyond a liquidity premium through a “rollover risk channel”. This effect is economically significant during episodes of market...

I use the 2007-2008 financial crisis to gauge how internal financial resources and external financial constraints mitigate or worsen the impact of the crisis on default risk of US industrial firms. I identify heterogeneity in short-term funding needs at the onset of the crisis by exploiting...

This paper provides an alternative approach to the structural credit risk models. The first-passage-time approach extends the original Merton (Journal of Finance 29, 449-470) model by accounting for the fact that the default may occur not only at the debt's maturity, but also prior to this date....

We develop a structural equilibrium model with business cycles and use it to examine the economic implications of voluntary filing for bankruptcy. We find that conflict of interests that arises from the voluntary filing option of Chapter 11 causes higher ex-ante losses in firm value in...