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estimate default correlation in the credit portfolio of banks. These correlation estimates will help the regulator in India to …Estimation of default and asset correlation is crucial for banks to manage and measure portfolio credit risk. This … would require studying the risk profile of the banks’ entire credit portfolio and developing the appropriate methodology for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009283794
The main challenge of forecasting credit default risk in loan portfolios is forecasting the default probabilities and the default correlations. We derive a Merton-style threshold-value model for the default probability which treats the asset value of a firm as unknown and uses a factor model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295888
In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010295906
The main challenge of forecasting credit default risk in loan portfolios is forecasting the default probabilities and the default correlations. We derive a Merton-style threshold-value model for the default probability which treats the asset value of a firm as unknown and uses a factor model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082801
In this paper we focus on the analysis of the effect of prediction and estimation risk on the loss distribution, risk measures and economic capital. When variables for the determination of probability of default and loss distribution have to be predicted because they are not available at the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005082814
Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird untersucht, wie die Assetkorrelation zwischen zwei Sektoren auf einfache Weise berechnet werden kann und wie sich unterschiedliche Korrelationsannahmen auf die Form und Risikomaße von Verlustverteilungen auswirken. Dazu werden Ausfallzeitreihen von zwei...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005607533
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014431441
In this paper, we demonstrate the superiority of vine copulas over conventional copulas when modeling the dependence structure of a credit portfolio. We show statistical and economic implications of replacing conventional copulas by vine copulas for a subportfolio of the Euro Stoxx 50 and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544001
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014518798
We develop a framework for modeling conditional loss distributions through the introduction of risk factor dynamics. Asset value changes of a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks. Default...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010315714