A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets and developing economies and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. It first shows that the degree of fiscal...

We study the long-term effects of inflation surges on inflation expectations. German households living in areas with higher local inflation during the hyperinflation of the 1920s expect higher inflation today, after partialling out determinants of historical inflation and current inflation...

This paper uses the onset of COVID-19 to examine how countries construct their policy packages in response to a severe negative shock. We use several new datasets to track the use of a large variety of policy tools: announced fiscal stimulus (both above- and below-the-line), monetary policy...

We study capital controls on outflows (CCOs) in situations of macroeconomic and financial distress. We present novel empirical evidence indicating that CCO implementation is associated with crises and declines in GDP growth. We then develop a theoretical framework that is consistent with such...

I use nominal and real bond risks as new moments to discipline a New Keynesian asset pricing model, where supply shocks, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that nominal bond risks--as measured by their stock...

Which firms relied on commercial banks for credit and which firms did not at the onset of the Great Depression would seem to be an important question given the vast literature discussing banking distress in the United States during the 1930s. The question, however, has not been answered. This...

Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940-2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow macroeconomic recoveries:...

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using intraday data, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity prices all...

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable...