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Fiscal Procyclicality in Commodity Exporting Countries : How Much Does it Pour and Why?
Arroyo Marioli, Francisco; Végh, Carlos A. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
A large literature has documented that fiscal policy is procyclical in emerging markets and developing economies and acyclical/countercyclical in advanced economies. This paper analyzes fiscal procyclicality in commodity-exporting countries. It first shows that the degree of fiscal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322818
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Spatial Structural Change
Eckert, Fabian; Peters, Michael - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
shifting away from their sector of specialization, rural labor markets saw faster wage growth and industrialization than non …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388845
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Sprouting Cities : How Rural America Industrialized
Eckert, Fabian; Juneau, John; Peters, Michael - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the joint process of urbanization and industrialization in the US economy between 1880 and 1940. We show that … only a small share of aggregate industrialization is accounted for by the relocation of workers from remote rural areas to … transforming their sectoral structure. Most industrialization within counties occurred through the emergence of new "factory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537768
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A Theory of Trade Policy Transitions
Bowen, T. Renee; Broz, J. Lawrence; Rosendorff, B. Peter - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Trade policy is set by domestic political bargaining between globalists and protectionists, representing owners of factors specific to export and import-competing sectors respectively. Consistent with the post-Civil War Era of Restriction, protectionists implement high tariffs when status quo...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372419
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The Outlook for Long-Term Economic Growth
Jones, Charles I. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
population growth throughout the world. In contrast, other forces could potentially sustain or even increase growth. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337880
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Exchange Rates, Natural Rates, and the Price of Risk
Kekre, Rohan; Lenel, Moritz - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We study the source of exchange rate fluctuations using a general equilibrium model accommodating shocks in goods and financial markets. These shocks differ in their induced comovements between exchange rates, interest rates, and quantities. A calibration matching data from the U.S. and G10...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015072917
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The Dollar in an Era of International Retrenchment
Chahrour, Ryan; Valchev, Rosen - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Recent trends suggest the world economy may be tending towards an equilibrium with two distinct trading blocs, each …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322792
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Poverty and Health
Lleras-Muney, Adriana; Schwandt, Hannes; Wherry, Laura - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
Poverty is strongly associated with worse health across countries and within countries across individuals. However, not all poor individuals suffer from poor health: the effects of poverty on health vary across place and time. In this review, we discuss the evidence documenting these patterns,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056193
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Trends in the Retirement Preparedness of Black and Hispanic Households in the US
Wolff, Edward N. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Retirement income security refers to the ability of households to provide an adequate stream of income during the period of their retirement from the labor force. Expected retirement income is based of four components: (i) standard non-pension wealth holdings, (ii) defined contribution (DC)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337766
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Gaining Steam : Incumbent Lock-in and Entrant Leapfrogging
Hornbeck, Richard; Hsu, Shanon; Humlum, Anders; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We examine the long transition from water to steam power in US manufacturing, focusing on early users of mechanical power: lumber and flour mills. Digitizing Census of Manufactures manuscripts for 1850 to 1880, we show that as steam costs declined, manufacturing activity grew faster in counties...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528423