We study the role of export credit agencies--the predominant tool of industrial policy--on firm behavior by using the effective shutdown of the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) from 2015-2019 as a natural experiment. We show that firms that previously relied on EXIM support saw a...

We develop a dynamic extension of Dornbusch et al. (1977) with "rustiness": the home country has relatively higher unit costs tomorrow for goods it is not producing today. We solve for optimal tariff policy when there is a potential for a crisis: an increase in demand for goods produced abroad....

Trade policy is set by domestic political bargaining between globalists and protectionists, representing owners of factors specific to export and import-competing sectors respectively. Consistent with the post-Civil War Era of Restriction, protectionists implement high tariffs when status quo...

Perceptions of global supply chains (GSCs) have shifted in recent years from a positive to a more cautious view. Standard GSC measures have mostly not adapted to this change as they focus on participation in, rather than exposure to, foreign supply chains. This paper presents the tools necessary...

We investigate the long-term effects of export opportunities to a large destination market on multinational affiliates and domestic firms in a low-income host country. The US-Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement reduced US import tariffs on exports from Vietnam. Tariff reductions led to entry of...

We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of...

We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports and exports. Using confidential firm-trade linked data, we show that the decline in imports of tariffed goods was driven by discontinuations of U.S. buyer-foreign supplier...

We estimate a model of firm export dynamics featuring cross-country complementarities. The firm decides where to export by solving a dynamic combinatorial discrete choice problem, for which we develop a solution algorithm that overcomes the computational challenges inherent to the large...

We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood...

Countries are increasingly turning to non-tariff barriers that are hard to measure and often illegal under WTO rules. What are the impacts of these policies, and what do they reveal about market power in international trade? We study a comprehensive system of discretionary import licenses...