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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle

Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995

Inflation, War Bonds, and the Rise of Republicans in the 1950s

Brunet, Gillian; Hilt, Eric; Jaremski, Matthew S. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study the role of war bonds and inflation in the presidential elections of the 1950s. During World War II, the … promotion of savings bonds made Americans more sensitive to the high inflation that prevailed after the war, contributing to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447290

Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks : A Natural Language Approach

Aruoba, S. Borağan; Drechsel, Thomas - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696

Back to the 1980s or Not? : The Drivers of Inflation and Real Risks in Treasury Bonds

Pflueger, Carolin E. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

, demand shocks, and monetary policy are the fundamental drivers of inflation. Endogenously time-varying risk premia imply that …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226118

Local Projections

Jordà, Òscar; Taylor, Alan M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

A central question in applied research is to estimate the effect of an exogenous intervention or shock on an outcome. The intervention can affect the outcome and controls on impact and over time. Moreover, there can be subsequent feedback between outcomes, controls and the intervention. Many of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056147

Does Monetary Policy Matter? The Narrative Approach after 35 Years

Romer, Christina; Romer, David - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

inflation in the expected directions. Analysis of available policy records suggests that a contractionary monetary shock likely … impacts on real GDP and inflation in 2023 and 2024 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250187

It's Baaack : The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve

Benigno, Pierpaolo; Eggertsson, Gauti B. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

inflation in the 2020s. Economic slack is measured as firms' job vacancies over the number of unemployed workers. After showing …. Policy implications include the thesis that appropriate monetary policy can bring inflation down without a significant …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250214

A Theory of Labor Markets with Inefficient Turnover

Blanco, Andres; Drenik, Andres; Moser, Christian; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We develop a theory of labor markets with four features: search frictions, worker productivity shocks, wage rigidity, and two-sided lack of commitment. Inefficient job separations occur in the form of endogenous quits and layoffs that are unilaterally initiated whenever a worker's...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544688

Global Indeterminacy in HANK Economies

Acharya, Sushant; Benhabib, Jess - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

monetary policy responds to changes in inflation. Neither inertial rules nor rules which respond to output-gap fluctuations can …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544740

What Can Measured Beliefs Tell Us About Monetary Non-Neutrality?

Afrouzi, Hassan; Flynn, Joel P.; Yang, Choongryul - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper studies how measured beliefs can be used to identify monetary non-neutrality. In a general equilibrium model with both nominal rigidities and endogenous information acquisition, we analytically characterize firms' optimal dynamic information policies and how their beliefs affect...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576569