This paper assesses the proximate causes of the post pandemic surge in US inflation, the Federal Reserve's real time …

inflation uncertainty strongly predicts a more hawkish policy stance that is not explained either by the Fed's macroeconomic … forecasts or by public uncertainty proxies. We rationalize these results with a model of inflation tail risks and argue that the … effect of uncertainty on the FOMC's decisions reflects policymakers' concern with maintaining credibility for the inflation …

We present a simple long-run aggregate demand and supply framework for evaluating long-run inflation. The framework …-run inflation as well as transitions between steady states. We use the analysis to provide a fresh perspective on the forces that … drove global inflation downward over the past four decades. We argue that for inflation to remain low and stable in the …

inflation strongly and persistently, (ii) lead to statistically weak negative effects on activity, (iii) contributed to … having a stronger effect on inflation expectations. Quantitatively, increasing political pressure by half as much as Nixon …

monetary policymakers have objectives over unemployment and inflation outcomes that are not well-approximated through a … long-run inflation and unemployment goals. The trade-off between the resultant downward tilts in unemployment and inflation …

banks set interest rate targets, and do not even pretend to control money supplies. How is inflation determined under an …We finally have a complete theory of inflation under interest rate targets, that mirrors the long-run neutrality and … frictionless limit of monetary theory: Inflation can be stable and determinate under interest rate targets, including a k percent …

public finances. We show that when the ECB misses its inflation target this has large heterogeneous fiscal consequences for … missing their inflation targets. They are also sizeable …