Showing 1 - 10 of 82
We study a sequential experimentation model with endogenous feedback. Agents choose between a safe and risky action, the latter generating stochastic rewards. When making this choice, each agent is selfishly motivated (myopic). However, agents can disclose their experiences to a public record,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544761
maker has learned? The key constraint we impose, which is shared across models of Bayesian learning, is that any learning … Dean 2015) and the NIAS condition (Caplin and Martin 2015) to allow for arbitrary learning. We apply our framework to show … how identification of what was learned can be strengthened with additional assumptions on the form of Bayesian learning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537767
We provide semiparametric identification results for a broad class of learning models in which continuous outcomes …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486255
learning and policy recommendation in advisory committees. We quantify the effectiveness of advisory panels, and evaluate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056111
Underrepresentation of minority and poor households in scientific studies undermines policy decisions and public health. We study data from a serological study that randomized participation incentives. Participation is low (6% at $0, 17% at $100, 29% at $500) and unequal: minority and poor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537774
The "voltage effect" is defined as the tendency for a program's efficacy to change when it is scaled up, which in most cases results in the absolute size of a program's treatment effects to diminish when the program is scaled. Understanding the scaling problem and taking steps to diminish...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537744
Using randomized control trials (RCTs) applied over time in different countries, we study how the economic environment affects how agents learn from new information. We show that as inflation has recently risen in advanced economies, both households and firms have become more attentive and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322872
parameters of the house price growth process and the underlying state of the housing market. Slow learning about the long …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322902
We find evidence suggesting that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. Second, we show that this bias is not present in forecasts data that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks have imperfect credibility. Exploiting unique survey-based measures of expected inflation, output growth, and interest rates, we estimate a small-scale New Keynesian model for the United States and other G7 countries...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014421202