Cáceres, Neila; Malone, Samuel W. - In: International Journal of Forecasting 29 (2013) 4, pp. 575-591
We use popular non-parametric (CART, TreeNet) and parametric (logit) techniques to identify robust economic, demographic and political conditions that lead to shifts in control in the executive branch of government in 162 countries during the period 1960–2004. We find that institutional...