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A central tenet of inflation targeting is that establishing and maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations are essential. In this paper, we reexamine the role of key elements of the inflation targeting framework towards this end, in the context of an economy where economic agents have an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791794
The efficient market hypothesis gives rise to forecasting tests that mirror those adopted when testing the optimality of a forecast in the context of a given information set. However, there are also important differences arising from the fact that market efficiency tests rely on establishing...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791371
Rational expectations are often used as a strong argument against policy activism, as they may undermine or neutralize the policymaker’s actions. Although this sometimes happens, rational expectations do not always imply policy invariance or ineffectiveness. In fact, in certain circumstances...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005661866
policy-makers' preferences, and rely on a perpetual learning technology to form expectations. We find that with learning … from those implied by rational expectations, even at long horizons. The presence of learning increases the sensitivity of … the policy-maker. In contrast, under learning, private inflation expectations follow a time-varying process and provide …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005124304
The principal argument of the paper is that in an incomplete information setting, where the private sector lacks information on goverment objectives and has to learn about the policy rule by direct observation and estimation, simple `sub-optimal' rules may outperform the more complicated rule...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005281364
. Learning about the transmission process of monetary policy is introduced by having heterogeneous agents - i.e. the central bank …. Here following Evans and Honkapohja (2001), the learning scheme we investigate is that of least-squares learning (recursive … OLS) using the Kalman filter. We find that optimal monetary policy under learning is a policy that separates estimation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005114493
An autocoherent model is a model which is validated by the data if people use it to form their expectations. A structural model may be incorrect but autocoherent, thus supporting a self-confirming equilibrium. This paper explores some mathematical properties of autocoherent models. The first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011084621
policy-makers, learning from the experience of the 1970s, eschewed activist policies in favour of policies that concentrated …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005662108
active learning possibilities has effects on the optimal interest rate rule followed by the central bank. For a wide range of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005791711
. This learning generates a boom and a crash, which we call `informational overshooting'. The paper applies this idea to real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005504406