It is widely known that significant in-sample evidence of predictability does not guarantee significant out-of-sample predictability. This is often interpreted as an indication that in-sample evidence is likely to be spurious and should be discounted. In this paper, we question this...

We examine empirical relevance of three alternative asymptotic approximations to the distribution of instrumental variables estimators by Monte Carlo experiments. We find that conventional asymptotics provides a reasonable approximation to the actual distribution of instrumental variables...

Hall et al. (2007) propose a method for moment selection based on an information criterion that is a function of the entropy of the limiting distribution of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator. They establish the consistency of the method subject to certain conditions that include...

Following an influential article by Angrist and Krueger (1992) on two-sample instrumental variables (TSIV) estimation, numerous empirical researchers have applied a computationally convenient two-sample two-stage least squares (TS2SLS) variant of Angrist and Krueger's estimator. In the...

We propose a portmanteau test for serial correlation of the error term in a fixed effects model. The test is derived as a conditional Lagrange multiplier test, but it also has a straightforward Wald test interpretation. In Monte Carlo experiments, the test displays good size and power properties.

The theoretical and empirical econometric literatures on long memory and regime switching have evolved largely independently, as the phenomena appear distinct. We argue, in contrast, that they are intimately related, and we substantiate our claim in several environments, including a simple...