Showing 1 - 10 of 47
that forecasting behavior systematically deviates from normative predictions: Forecasters overreact to forecast errors in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990449
We integrate a case-based model of probability judgment with prospect theory to explore asset pricing under uncertainty. Research within the "heuristics and biases" tradition suggests that probability judgments respond primarily to case-specific evidence and disregard aggregate characteristics...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010990558
This paper presents a new technique for forecasting frequencies of events over time for individuals. The technique …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009208983
A quadratic model for production-inventory planning was made famous by Holt, Modigliani, Muth, and Simon in 1960 in (Holt, C. C., F. Modigliani, J. F. Muth, H. A. Simon. 1960. Planning Production, Inventories, and Work Force. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.), especially for its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209094
This paper examines the forecasting accuracy and the cost effectiveness of time series models with time …-varying coefficients. A simulation study investigates the potential forecasting benefits of a proposed Kalman filter type adaptive … estimation and forecasting approach. It is found that: (1) When appropriate, the time-varying coefficient approach leads to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209300
This paper extends the usual regression analysis to include the partition of the variance to examine the possible secondary and higher order impact of policy variables in a policy impact model. The federal Medicaid program is analyzed using the methodology to assess the impact of the policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209304
An alternative to using a single forecasting method is to average the forecasts made by various methods. In this paper … predict corporate earnings per share. We conclude that, on average, the primary forecasting advantages of analysts over time … beginning of the fiscal year. For predictions in the first half of the fiscal year, there is evidence of forecasting benefits …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209307
This paper analyzes the impact of forecasting on inventory decisions in a large physical distribution system …. Alternative forecasting models are evaluated by developing tradeoff curves between inventory investment and customer service. The … results demonstrate that the choice of forecasting model is an important factor in determining the amount of investment needed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009209407
bullwhip effect: demand forecasting and order lead times. We extend these results to multiple-stage supply chains with and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214194
This paper presents a multistage supply chain model that is based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models. Given an ARIMA model of consumer demand and the lead times at each stage, it is shown that the orders and inventories at each stage are also ARIMA, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009214374