Showing 1 - 10 of 20
Global supply chains have come under unprecedented stress as a result of US-China trade tensions, the Covid-19 pandemic, and geopolitical shocks. We document shifts in the pattern of US participation in global value chains over the last four decades, in terms of partner countries, products, and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372418
We document three facts about the global diffusion of surveillance AI technology, and in particular, the role played by China. First, China has a comparative advantage in this technology. It is substantially more likely to export surveillance AI than other countries, and particularly so as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372433
We study the reasons for the large, coincident increases in unbalanced international trade and overall trade from 1970 to 2019. We show that these two salient features--a rise in net and gross international trade--are largely a consequence of a reduction in intratemporal trade barriers rather...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145052
Monetary and fiscal policies require coordination to achieve desired macroeconomic outcomes. The literature since Leeper (1991) has focused on two regimes: monetary dominance and fiscal dominance. In both cases, one policy is active while the other is passive and accommodates the former. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015145074
The "monetary trilemma" - the hypothesis that full monetary policy autonomy, exchange rate stability, and financial openness cannot simultaneously be achieved - has long been studied. Recently, holding international reserves (IR) has become an important policy instrument, insuring against...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362059
This paper explores how non-U.S. central banks behave when firms in their economies engage in currency mismatch, borrowing more heavily in dollars than justified by their operating exposures. We begin by documenting that, in a panel of 53 countries, central bank holdings of dollar reserves are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477280
In a collaborative project with ten central banks, we have investigated the causes of the post-pandemic global inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due primarily to supply disruptions and sharp increases in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544809
This paper surveys the decline in real interest rates in advanced and emerging economies over the past several decades, linking that process to a range of global factors that have operated with different force in different periods. The paper argues that estimates of long-run equilibrium real...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447270
We present a simple long-run aggregate demand and supply framework for evaluating long-run inflation. The framework illustrates how exogenous economic and political economy factors generate central bank pressures that can impact long-run inflation as well as transitions between steady states. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528348
We study the international transmission of U.S. monetary policy (FED hikes) and a strong U.S. dollar. Both of these variables are endogenous and thus we follow the recent developments in the literature to measure the exogenous components of each from the perspective of the rest of the world...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528370