This paper analyzes whether fiscal policy in South Asia amplifies or smooths business cycle fluctuations. The paper estimates several econometric models to explore the cyclicality of government spending and tax buoyancy. The findings show that fiscal policy is procyclical in most countries. In...

The report and the summary review the recent economic and fiscal performance of Mongolia; outline current medium-term prospects of Mongolia's economy; discuss short-term risks and structural vulnerabilities; and comment on the efficiency of past public investment programs and practices

US federal transfers to individuals are large, countercyclical, vary geographically, and are often credited for helping stabilize regional economies. This paper estimates the short-run effects of these transfers using plausibly exogenous regional variation in temporary stimulus packages and...

Transfers to individuals were a larger part of the 2009 U.S. stimulus package than government purchases. Using a two-agent New Keynesian model, this paper shows analytically that the multiplier on targeted transfers to financially constrained households is (i) larger than the purchase multiplier...

This paper analyzes the business cycle characteristics of the economies of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States using a model of a small open economy subject to interest rate and fiscal expenditure shocks and financial frictions. The paper shows that macroeconomic aggregates in this...

This paper presents estimates of the effects that terms of trade volatility has on growth of real gross domestic product per capita. Based on five-year non-overlapping panel data comprising 175 countries during 1980-2010, the paper finds that: (i) in model specifications that do not include...

Myanmar had a strong economic take off between 2011 and 2015, but sustaining it will depend on improvements to public services and infrastructure. Yet general government spending at 15 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) is much lower than what is needed to deliver these improvements, and...

Ghana has experienced an extended period of robust growth since the early 2000s, supported by a favorable external environment and large investment inflows, particularly in the extractive industries. In 2011, as the start of oil production drove a surge in per capita income, Ghana graduated from...

The report is structured in four chapters that outline the main sources of volatility in the region and suggest ways to mitigate the impacts of that volatility on growth. Chapter one presents stylized facts associated with the growth performance of the Eastern Caribbean over the last 40 years....