This paper examines the relationship between biofuels, field crops and cattle prices in the U.S. from a new perspective. We focus on predictability in distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops and cattle returns distribution, or vice...

Forecasts of crude oil prices' volatility are important inputs to many decision making processes in application areas such as macroeconomic policy making, risk management, options pricing, and portfolio management. Despite the fact that a large number of forecasting models have been designed to...

This paper extends previous studies by investigating the relevance of structural breaks and long memory in modeling and forecasting the conditional volatility of oil spot and futures prices using a variety of GARCH-type models. Our results can be summarized as follows. First, we provide evidence...

The US dollar is used as the primary currency of international crude oil trading; as such, the recent substantial depreciation in the US dollar has resulted in a corresponding increase in crude oil prices. In addition, oil price and exchange-rate returns have been shown to be skewed and...

This article analyzes the demand for electricity and provides out-of-sample forecasting at the sectoral level using a panel cointegration approach. The econometric model permits cross-sectional heterogeneity within a dynamic framework that incorporates information on relevant income and prices...

This study constructs a flexible range-based volatility model by considering extreme-value information to explore the volatility and dependence structures between the oil price and the US dollar exchange rate. An asset-allocation strategy is implemented to evaluate the economic value and confirm...

Stochastic process models of commodity prices are important inputs in energy investment evaluation and planning problems. In this paper, we focus on modeling and forecasting the long-term price level, since it is the dominant factor in many such applications. To provide a foundation for our...

Given that the prices of gold and silver have witnessed large and substantial swings in recent years, policymakers and investors need readily available and reliable forecasts of the prices of these two precious metals. Survey data of forecasts of the prices of gold and silver provide a...