"We present a theory of choice among lotteries in which the decision maker's attention is drawn to (precisely defined) salient payoffs. This leads the decision maker to a context-dependent representation of lotteries in which true probabilities are replaced by decision weights distorted in favor...

In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts' optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets,...

Frontmatter -- CONTENTS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- Introduction -- CHAPTER 1 The Financial Crisis of 2008 -- CHAPTER 2 What Were They Thinking? -- CHAPTER 3 A Neglected Risk Model of the Financial Crisis -- CHAPTER 4 Extrapolation in Financial Markets -- CHAPTER 5 Representativeness and Diagnostic...