Ensemble prediction systems aim to account for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. Ensemble forecasting is sometimes viewed as a method of obtaining (objective) probabilistic forecasts. How is one to judge the quality of an ensemble at forecasting a system? The probability that...

Parameter estimation in nonlinear models is a common task, and one for which there is no general solution at present. In the case of linear models, the distribution of forecast errors provides a reliable guide to parameter estimation, but in nonlinear models the facts that predictability may...

This work is motivated by dose-finding studies, where the number of events per subject within a specified study period form the primary outcome. The aim of the considered studies is to identify the target dose for which the new drug can be shown to be as effective as a competitor medication....

In this paper we analyse the equilibrium structure for a particular type of electricity market. We consider a market with two generators offering electricity into a pool. Generators are centrally dispatched, with cheapest offers used first. The pool price is determined as the highest-priced...

This paper investigates the optimal bidding strategy (supply function) for a generator offering power into a wholesale electricity market. The model has three characteristics: the uncertainties facing the generator are described by a single probability function, namely the market distribution...

In electricity wholesale markets, generators often sign long term contracts with purchasers of power in order to hedge risks. In this paper, we consider a market where demand is uncertain, but can be represented as a function of price together with a random shock. Each generator offers a smooth...

In this paper, we consider the optimal policy for a generator offering power into a wholesale electricity market operating under a pool arrangement. Anderson and Philpott [Math. Oper. Res., 27 (2002), pp. 82--100] recently discussed necessary conditions for an optimal offer curve when there is...

This paper investigates generators’ strategic behaviors in contract signing in the forward market and power transaction in the electricity spot market. A stochastic equilibrium program with equilibrium constraints (SEPEC) model is proposed to characterize the interaction of generators’...

Pharmacokinetic studies are commonly analyzed using a two-stage approach where the first stage involves estimation of pharmacokinetic parameters for each subject separately and the second stage uses the individual parameter estimates for statistical inference. This two-stage approach is not...

We consider the problem of semi-parametric regression modelling when the data consist of a collection of short time series for which measurements within series are correlated. The objective is to estimate a regression function of the form E[Y(t) | x] =x'ß+μ(t), where μ(.) is an arbitrary,...