Regressions of ex-post changes in floating exchange rates on appropriate interest differentials typically imply that the high interest rate currency tends to appreciate - the `forward discount puzzle'. Using data from the European Monetary System we find that a large part of the forward discount...

Previous time-series studies have shown evidence of mean-reversion in real exchange rates. Deviations from purchasing power parity (PPP) appear to have half-lives of approximately four years. The long samples required for statistical significance are unavailable for most currencies, however, and...

This paper uses a panel of data from 22 countries between 1967 and 1992 to explore the trade-off between the `Holy Trinity' of fixed exchange rates, independent monetary policy, and capital mobility. I use: flexible- and sticky-price monetary exchange rate models to parameterize monetary...

Fixed exchange rates are less volatile than floating rates. The volatility of macroeconomic variables, such as money and output, does not change very much across exchange rate regimes, however. This suggests that exchange rate models based only on macroeconomic fundamentals are unlikely to be...

A democratic society in which the distribution of wealth is unequal elects political parties which tend to represent the interests of the poor. The clientele of such governments favour unanticipated inflation taxes to erode the real value of debt service and redistribute income from the rich to...

We analyse the proposed ‘stability pact’ for countries joining a European Monetary Union (EMU). Within EMU shortsighted governments fail to fully internalize the inflationary consequences of their debt policies, which results in excessive debt accumulation. Hence, although in the absence of...

We explore endogenous monetary unification in the context of a model in which a country with serious structural distortions (and, hence, high inflation) is admitted into a monetary union once its economic structure has converged sufficiently towards that of the existing participants. If...