This paper develops a model of carbon pricing by considering two fundamental drivers of European Union Allowances: economic activity and energy prices. On the one hand, economic activity is proxied by aggregated industrial production in the EU 27 (as it provides the best performance in a...

This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and...

Staying within the 2° C temperature increase target for climate change requires for ambitious emission reduction targets for the 2012–2020 compliance period. Cost-efficiency is a crucial criterion for the achievement of such targets, requiring analyses of all possible options. Enhancing the...