Based on annual data for growth and inflation forecasts for Germany covering the time span from 1970 to 2007 and up to 17 different forecasts per year, we test for a possible asymmetry of the forecasters' loss function and estimate the degree of asymmetry for each forecasting institution using...

Demographic change inevitably shifts the balance between contributors and recipients in the pension system. Moreover, in the German pension system benefit levels are closely linked to the current state of economic prosperity. Therefore, in the coming decades stabilisation of old-age security...