The paper combines Baumol's model of structural change with a model of aggregate demand growth in the Keynesian-Kaleckian tradition to predict the dynamics of aggregate employment. The model for the demand regime is estimated with - and Baumol's model for the productivity regime is calibrated on...

The spring forecast for Swiss health expenditure covers the years 2008 to 2010 (official data range to 2007). For the year 2008, the forecast assumes a higher-than-average growth in health expenditure. While a still solid growth is expected for the year 2009, a cooling down as a consequence of...

The autumn forecast for Swiss health expenditure covers the years 2008 to 2011 (official data range to 2007). For the year 2008, the forecast assumes a higher-than-average growth in health expenditure. While a still solid growth is expected for the year 2009, a cooling down as a consequence of...

Nordhaus (2008) has developed a testing strategy for what he calls "Baumol's diseases", by which name he designates a number of by-products of structural change that are unwanted from an economic policy perspective. He finds that the U.S. economy is strongly affected by the "diseases". This...

Towards the end of 2009, the world economy was recovering from its deepest recession since the end of World War II. Most countries around the world took resort to fiscal policy in order to foster this recovery. In this paper, we first discuss the pros and cons of discretionary fiscal policy from...

Okun's Law postulates a stable relationship between quarterly output growth and changes in (un)employment. This proposition has so far been tested with macroeconomic data at the highest level of aggregation. The paper goes beyond that in extending the analysis to industry data from Switzerland,...

I investigate whether demand growth and productivity growth in Switzerland have benefitted from the wage moderation that set in at the beginning of the 1990s in this country. The results suggest that the Swiss demand regime is profit-led while the productivity regime is wage-led. This means on...