Numerous studies have shown that compensation demanded (CD) to give up a commodity often greatly exceeds willingness to pay (WTP) to obtain the same commodity, even in incentive compatible experiments that penalize strategic misrepresentation. Observed CD/WTP disparities are too large to be...

We analyze the computational problem of estimating financial risk in a nested simulation. In this approach, an outer simulation is used to generate financial scenarios, and an inner simulation is used to estimate future portfolio values in each scenario. We focus on one risk measure, the...

Two important defensive mechanisms available to governments combating terrorism are warnings and the deployment of physical resources. Warnings are relatively inexpensive to issue but their effectiveness suffers from false alarms. Physical deployments of trained security personnel can directly...

Public officials with the authority to order hurricane evacuations face a difficult trade-off between risks to life and costly false alarms. Evacuation decisions must be made on the basis of imperfect information, in the form of forecasts. The quality of these decisions can be improved if they...

Standards are an effective means for managing hazardous technologies only if three conditions are satisfied: (a) setting general standards is preferable to case-by-case decision making; (b) some general safety philosophy, balancing risk and other factors, can be justified on normative grounds;...

While Stochastic Dominance has been employed in various forms as early as 1932, it has only been since 1969--1970 that the notion has been developed and extensively employed in the area of economics, finance, agriculture, statistics, marketing and operations research. In this survey, the first-,...

This paper derives two mechanisms through which Bayesian-rational individuals with differing priors will tend to be relatively overconfident about their estimates and predictions, in the sense of overestimating the precision of these estimates. The intuition behind one mechanism is slightly...

Drawing on recent developments in discrete time fixed income options theory, we propose a stochastic programming procedure, which we call stochastic dedication, for managing asset/liability portfolios with interest rate contingent claims. The model uses scenario generation to combine...

In all large engineering projects, valuation constitutes an important step during the initial stage as each stakeholder assesses the prospect of his or her investment. The complexity of valuation increases dramatically in the face of uncertainty especially when the risks are dynamic and...

Some people find decision making under uncertainty difficult because they fear making the "wrong decision," wrong in the sense that the outcome of their chosen alternative proves to be worse than could have been achieved with another alternative. These people may be willing to pay a premium to...