In this paper, we analyze the twin deficits hypothesis covering the period from 1994 to 2012 in Turkey. In contrast to previous studies on Turkey, the existence of twin deficits is investigated by regime-dependent impulse response functions and forecast error variance decompositions based on a...

Economists have traditionally viewed futures prices as fully informative about future economic activity and asset prices. We argue that open interest could be more informative than futures prices in the presence of hedging demand and limited risk absorption capacity in futures markets. We find...

This paper proposes a monetary model with firm entry as a means for alleviating the difficulties of real business cycle models in reproducing the smoothness and persistence of macroeconomic variables together with the volatility of profits and markups. Simulations show that my baseline model...

This paper examines the impact of different types of oil price shocks on the U.S. economy, using a factor-augmented VAR (FAVAR) approach. The results indicate that when examining the effects of oil price shocks, it is important to account for the interaction between the oil market and the...

The research led by Gali (AER 1999) and Basu, Fernald, and Kimball (AER 2006) raises two important questions regarding the validity of the RBC theory: (i) How important are technology shocks in explaining the business cycle? (ii) Do impulse responses to technology shocks found in the data reject...

In a situation where agents can only observe a noisy signal of the shock to future economic fundamentals, SVAR models can still be successfully employed to estimate the shock and the associated impulse response functions. Identification is reached by means of dynamic rotations of the reduced...

In this paper we analyze the extent to which the US economy affects international business fluctuations across countries and we ask whether the nonlinear nature of the business cycle affects the degree of co-movement between countries. A multivariate nonlinear LSTAR model is estimated for the...

This paper examines the usefulness of a more refined business cycle classification for monthly industrial production (IP), beyond the usual distinction between expansions and contractions. Univariate Markov-switching models show that a three regime model is more appropriate than a model with...