In this paper, a method is introduced for approximating the likelihood for the unknown parameters of a state space model. The approximation converges to the true likelihood as the simulation size goes to infinity. In addition, the approximating likelihood is continuous as a function of the...

We investigate the time series properties of both filtered and unfiltered real exchange rate series produced by DSGE models that feature local currency pricing, home bias, nontraded goods, and incomplete markets. Detrended series produced by several specifications approach the empirically...

We examine the dynamics of knowledge production for a panel of 19 OECD countries. A new and unique data set is used to proxy the domestic flows of “new-to-the-world” knowledge and ideas. We rigorously address the cross-country heterogeneity in the production of knowledge and the endogeneous...

This article aims to extend evaluation of the classic multifactor model of Carhart (1997) for the case of global equity indices and to expand analysis performed in Sakowski et. al. (2015). Our intention is to test several modifications of these models to take into account different dynamics of...

The present paper develops Adaptive Trees, a new machine learning approach specifically designed for economic forecasting. Economic forecasting is made difficult by economic complexity, which implies non-linearities (multiple interactions and discontinuities) and unknown structural changes (the...

<i>Modeling and Pricing of Swaps for Financial and Energy Markets with Stochastic Volatilities</i> is devoted to the modeling and pricing of various kinds of swaps, such as those for variance, volatility, covariance, correlation, for financial and energy markets with different stochastic volatilities,...

Given bid-offer quotes for a set of listed vanilla options, a fundamental need of option market makers is to interpolate and extrapolate the available quotes to a full arbitrage-free surface. We propose a methodology which directly controls the trade-off between smoothness and bid-offer...

This chapter puts forward a manual for how to setup and solve a continuous time model that allows to analyze endogenous (1) level and risk dynamics. The latter includes (2) tail risk and crisis probability as well as (3) the Volatility Paradox. Concepts such as (4) illiquidity and liquidity...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study the direction of the causality between tourism development and economic growth in Lebanon between 1995 and 2013, after taking into consideration terrorist incidents and their intensities. These are considered as exogenous shocks that affect...

The main policy implication that emerges from this study is that subsidised education without at the same time provision for the creation of growth-enhancing jobs can be good for the individual but bad for growth (and presumably public finances). There is evidence of very high private returns to...