Die dritte Langfristprognose von Economix schätzt zum einen die Auswirkungen des jüngsten Flüchtlingsstroms auf den deutschen Arbeitsmarkt und die Qualifikationsstruktur der Arbeitskräfte ab und prognostiziert zum anderen die Chancen und Risiken der Digitalisierung. Alle Berechnungen zeigen,...

In this paper, we evaluate the forecasting ability of 145 indicators and ten types of forecast combination schemes to predict housing prices and rents in 71 German cities. We are interested in whether local business confidence indicators facilitate substantial improvements of the forecasts,...

Based on annual data for growth and inflation forecasts for Germany covering the time span from 1970 to 2007 and up to 17 different forecasts per year, we test for a possible asymmetry of the forecasters' loss function and estimate the degree of asymmetry for each forecasting institution using...

Den gängigen Konjunkturprognosen liegen in der Regel komplexe ökonometrische Modelle mit einer Vielzahl von Input-Variablen zugrunde. Das Institut für Demoskopie Allensbach fragt in seiner „Neujahrsfrage“ die Bevölkerung seit Gründung der Bundesrepublik jedes Jahr nach ihren Erwartungen...

The paper evaluates the quality of the German national accounting data (GDP and its use-side components) as measured by the magnitude and dispersion of the forecast/revision errors. It is demonstrated that government consumption series are the least reliable, whereas real GDP and real private...

Information about special events can improve economic forecasts substantially. However, due to the lack of timely quantitative data about these events, it has been difficult for professional forecasters to utilise such information in their forecasts. This paper investigates whether Internet...

We use Bayesian additive regression trees to reexamine the efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts for Germany. To this end, we use forecasts of four leading German economic research institutes for the sample period from 1970 to 2016. We reject the strong form of forecasts efficiency and...